SmashLob
Fair tennis win probabilities · SkipOdds Index

Two players. One fair number each.

Bookmaker prices for professional tennis, averaged across the market and stripped of the bookmaker margin — clean win probabilities for every match.

Today's matches

Live API Match-winner probabilities Margin removed Developer-first
Raw bookmaker odds · Mattia Bellucci v Arthur Rinderknech · 64 books
Mattia Bellucci 58.6%Arthur Rinderknech 46.9%
Total: 105.5%Bookmaker margin: +5.5%
↓ Margin removed
SkipOdds Index · fair probabilities
Mattia Bellucci55.5%
Arthur Rinderknech44.5%
Fair probabilities total: 100.0%
$ curl skipodds.com/v1/tennis/fixtures { "skipodds": { "p1": 0.5553, "p2": 0.4447, "margin_removed": 0.0548, "books_surveyed": 64 } }

The Board, live

Professional tennis · 64 bookmakers, de-vigged and refreshed continuously

ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 10:00 UTC
#66 Bellucci55.5%
#68 Rinderknech44.5%
64 booksmargin cut +5.5%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 10:00 UTC
#46 Halys42.5%
#8 Tiafoe57.5%
64 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 11:10 UTC
#47 Assche36.4%
#19 Tien63.6%
62 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 11:30 UTC
#14 Paul77.1%
Aguilar22.9%
62 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 12:20 UTC
#33 Buse16.2%
#5 Medvedev83.8%
64 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 12:30 UTC
#1 Zverev68.2%
#24 Musetti31.8%
64 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 12:40 UTC
#31 Etcheverry20.8%
#9 Minaur79.2%
60 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 13:40 UTC
#11 Djokovic76.5%
#83 Hijikata23.5%
61 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 13:50 UTC
#78 Molcan22.7%
#12 Fritz77.3%
61 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 14:30 UTC
#49 Borges35.2%
#25 Khachanov64.8%
61 booksmargin cut +5.5%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 15:00 UTC
#53 Tirante34.1%
#39 Struff65.9%
60 booksmargin cut +5.6%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 15:40 UTC
#43 Berrettini47.3%
#38 Humbert52.7%
62 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 18:00 UTC
#35 Michelsen18.2%
#3 Alcaraz81.8%
61 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Paris Masters2026-11-04 19:30 UTC
#7 Fils62.3%
#69 Machac37.7%
64 booksmargin cut +5.5%

Finals · last 24h

Rolex Paris Masters · Round 2
Casper Ruud v Rafael Jodar
6–3 6–4
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 2
Ben Shelton v Cameron Norrie
6–3 6–4
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 1
Jan-Lennard Struff v Arthur Gea
7–6 6–3
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 1
Benjamin Bonzi v Taylor Fritz
6–3 3–6 4–6
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 1
Alex Michelsen v Jiri Lehecka
6–7 6–2 6–4
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 1
Tommy Paul v Holger Rune
7–5 6–4
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 1
Novak Djokovic v Valentin Vacherot
6–7 7–5 6–1
Final
Rolex Paris Masters · Round 1
Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini
4–6 6–3 6–7
Final

How it works

Bookmaker odds overstate every player — the margin ("vig") is baked in, so the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. SmashLob averages the surveyed prices for each player and removes that margin, leaving the SkipOdds Index: the market's honest opinion of the match, two numbers that sum to exactly 100%. No bookmaker names, no betting slips — a forecast, not a tout.

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